The Caucasus has long been fought over by empires seeking control of this strategic region bordering Europe and Asia. For thousands of years, the trade routes have been a crucial element in empire building by the Roman, Byzantine, Mongol and Ottoman empires. In 1828, Qajar Iran ceded territories to the Romanov Empire, and by 1864, the entirety fell to Russia after the Caucasian Wars. Currently, the region is occupied by Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan with several autonomous republics; Nakhichevan, former Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Under the Soviet Union, the peoples of the Caucasus enjoyed unprecedented economic and social progress with the abolition of poverty, unemployment and discrimination based on race or gender. Between 1922 and 1936, on Lenin’s initiative, the Transcaucasian Socialist Federative Soviet Republic, was formed embracing four peoples: Russian, Armenian, Georgian and Azerbaijani, with Tbilisi as its capital and was among the founding Soviet republics of the USSR. With the new 1936 Constitution, three separate republics were formed, each having its own government, parliament and economic development.

If the Caucasus enjoyed a boom in economic and social well-being, in 1985, these advantages declined when Gorbachev launched Perestroika and permitted foreign NGOs to spread influence into the region. They notably fostered division where few divisions existed before. These interventions, to propagate Western values of ‘freedom and democracy’, were from the EU, US Aid, the Soros Foundation, and Islamic groups.

Armenia was the victim of a genocide executed by the Ottoman Empire in 1915 which led to Armenians becoming refugees across the world with large diasporas in the US, France, and the Middle East. It was Soviet power which gave statehood to Armenia following the October Revolution, and Armenia became one of the leading republics with Armenians allowed to use their own language and culture. Many Armenians occupied leading positions in the Soviet state, including the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, and in education, science, sport, and culture.

One of the sources for creating disorder by the US and the EU was to revive the animosity from the historic conflict of 1918-1921 between the Armenians and the Azeri population. Among the most disturbing developments was a pogrom in Azerbaijan when Armenian workers were attacked in the large chemical city of Sumgait in 1988. More intense clashes developed in the Nagorno-Karabakh autonomous republic (with a majority Armenian population), which resulted in many deaths. This led the Armenian population to declare their own Artsakh state separate from the Azeri SSR. Partisan militias and Armenian army involvement in four local wars continued to 2023 when the Azeri army (with help from Turkey) defeated the Armenians, who were forced to take refuge in Armenia. Russia assisted with peacekeepers despite attacks from the Azeri army. The capitulation by the Armenian government in surrendering Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan led to violent demonstrations against Prime Minister Pashinyan. In Stepanakert, the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh, atrocities were committed against those Armenians left in the city. The leader of Artsakh, Robert Kocharyan, emigrated and formed a party, which is a major opposition group in the Armenian parliament.

The signing in Washington in August 2025 of a treaty between Armenia, Azerbaijan and the US gives the US control of the Zangezur corridor between the Caspian and the Black Seas. This manoeuvre presents an existential threat to the security of all the states in the region. Armenia surrendered territory to Azerbaijan to allow the use of a pipeline to Turkey. While being posited as a ‘peace treaty’ between two countries which have been at war for four decades, the arrival of US influence represents a dangerous escalation. Following on from this, during assaults on Iran by Israel and the US, their air forces were permitted to use Azeri airspace for these attacks.

The US threat to the sovereignty and security in the region has been present for decades. Reflecting on globalist expansion worldwide, George Keenan in 1997 said, ‘The expansion of NATO will be the biggest mistake.’ Keenan’s concerns were ignored. A former advisor to Presidents Carter and Reagan unveiled the true strategy of the US when Zbigniew Brzezinski stated American policy was ‘to weaken Russia’.

Now Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, edited the Soros-funded Armenia Times between 1999 and 2012 and was jailed for libel against Serzh Sargsyan, then the Minister of Security. When the latter was elected President in 2008, Pashinyan was jailed for 7 years after organising demonstrations that led to 12 deaths and was released in 2011 in an amnesty. Elected as a member of the Petrosyan-led National Congress in 2012, he defected by breaking with Petrosyan and set up ‘Civil Contract’. After leading the protest movement - the 'Impeachment Union’- Pashinyan led the so-called velvet revolution in 2018. His policies are right-wing populism, neo-liberalism and Russophobia. Among his allies are mafia forces, TV and film actors and businessmen. His studies in journalism were never completed as he was expelled for alleging corruption in the university. He opposed Armenian politicians from Nagorno-Karabakh and was also jailed for contempt of court. Currently, he controls a small majority in government over two strong opposition groups. Pashinyan’s wife is now the editor of Armenia Times which controls most of the social media sites.

The second president of Azerbaijan, Geidar Aliev, was a member of the counter-intelligence agency, SMERSH, and was an officer in the KGB until Andropov promoted him to the Politburo in 1982. He was ejected six years later by Gorbachev for corruption and sycophancy. With the breakup of the USSR, he appears to have experienced an epiphany and switched to Islam. He made Azerbaijan his fiefdom and set up talks in Florida, which resolved the second Armenian-Azeri war over Nagorno-Karabakh. He tied Azerbaijan to the US by signing military and security treaties with Clinton and Bush. Aliev’s son Ilmar took over following Geidar’s death in the US and enforced an authoritarian regime excluding all opposition parties. His ruling party is globalist-authoritarian, embracing neo-liberal policies and Russophobia. Ilmar appointed his wife as Vice-President, and his stepson owns the Bayraktar drone company which was effective in defeating the Armenians in the war. It has built a factory in the Ukraine. The two communist and socialist groups have been excluded from the media and all public government.

Azerbaijan is part of a Turkic alliance with Central Asian states led by Turkish President, Erdogan. Aliev has sought to widen his links by joining BRICS, but this was rejected owing to the mafia clans in the country. After the tragedy of an Azeri airliner crashing last December with 38 deaths, Aliev accused Russia of attacking the plane however, the enquiry cleared Russia of being involved. Aliev demanded an apology and compensation, which was refused, and has intensified Russophobia, closing Russian cultural centres and arresting Russian journalists in Baku. Russophobia was developed in the 1990s by two anti-Soviet academics rewriting school textbooks and inciting anti-Soviet ideas, preaching that the Azeris were occupied after 1917. Aliev accused Russia of aggression against Azerbaijan without giving verification.

A factor in the declining power structures in Baku was the development of links with the Israeli Mossad spy agency. These strong links with Mossad were evidenced when the Iranian president Rafsanjani was killed while returning from a brief visit to Baku, when his helicopter mysteriously crashed while other helicopters were untouched. The death led to an election in which a reputedly pro-Western candidate was elected. In the recent attack by Israel and the US on Iran, Azerbaijan allowed the use of its airspace to launch these air attacks on the Iranian presidency and government.

There have been increasing incidents of arrests of Azeri citizens in Russia accused of mafia corruption, and killings of gang rivals, also of recruiting saboteurs against military targets in Russia. The most invidious case has been the arrests of a gang in the Urals city of Chelyabinsk, of the gang leader (appealed for personally for by Aliev), and the arrest, and deportation of the head of the Azeri community in the Moscow region. Meanwhile, in Azerbaijan, in retaliation, there have been arrests of Russian journalists working for the Sputnik radio agency in Baku. Additionally, there has been the closure of a Russian cultural centre in Baku and the halting of Russian language tuition in schools in Azerbaijan. Most recently, trade has dropped with products being turned back at customs controls to Georgia, Russia, and the European Union, causing huge losses of Azeri agricultural exports. The stopping of Chinese imports of gas from Azerbaijan is another source of woe for Aliev. Recently, Aliev has claimed northern Iran should belong to Azerbaijan.

In Armenia, there have been increasing tensions caused by Pashinyan taking action against the Orthodox Church in Yerevan, arresting the Patriarch for solidarity with Russia, and the detention of a leading businessman for expressing support for Russia amid the worsening of relations between Armenia and Russia. There have been large demonstrations in support of both individuals and against Pashinyan’s increasingly bellicose statements on Russia. Armenia has been a partner with NATO, holding joint exercises with the US in Armenia at a time when Armenia is also a member of the Collective Security Treaty with other post-Soviet states.

The recent meeting with Ursula von der Leyen in Yerevan on joining the EU has been criticised, together with an application to join NATO, and that is not even taking account of the payment of over 2 billion euros as an advance for entry to the EU. The closer relationship with the US raises concern that the Armenians will be used as proxies against either Russia or Iran. The US Embassy in Yerevan employs 400 ‘diplomats’, the biggest US embassy in the region, and has long been a lever in espionage with Armenia’s southern neighbour, Iran.

Pashinyan has been seen as becoming increasingly isolated for his turn towards the West and away from traditional alliances with BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the Collective Treaty Organisation and the former Soviet republics. Of course, owing to Armenia’s history, there is a large diaspora in the US and France which has funded projects and ensured Western influence. Yet there is a bigger diaspora in Russia which has been equally influential, if not more so. To this day, Armenians play an important role in the Russian Federation across diverse fields of society.

Trade with Russia plays a vitally important role in the development of Armenia. Recently, Pashinyan told Putin that the two countries were ‘brothers’ and has attempted to maintain his presence in two camps. Likewise with Azerbaijan, the peoples of the two countries cannot afford to lose the traditionally strong economic and strategic relationship with Russia.

In Azerbaijan, there is unlikely to emerge any threat to the Aliev family’s hold on power, yet the growing economic plight of the country will lead to consequences and perhaps even a military takeover, as was the case in 2003. In Armenia, there are elections scheduled in 2026, and if the two main opposition parties can unite on a single programme, then the rule of the pro-Western Pashinyan will disappear in dust and there will be a return to a government which supports the country’s traditional allies and not NATO and the EU.

Recent demonstrations against worsening economic conditions have led to a political crisis in Baku, caused by the corruption of the various clans there. The importance of Azerbaijan to Turkey may dissipate with the latter’s growing economic crisis. Erdogan’s long-held plans to build a Turkic alliance of states embracing Central Asia may end as a pipedream. Britain also has interests in Azerbaijan, with 450 companies operating there.